Fantasy Report: Baron Davis

Fantasy Report: Baron Davis

By Jonah Kaner

The Knicks are just 42 days and 23 games away from the end of the 2012 regular season.  If the Knicks want to succeed over that stretch, they’ll need their players to be fresh.  Yes, everyone needs to be well rested, but most importantly, the point guard - the floor general - needs to have gas left in the tank. For this reason, I think Baron Davis is a fantastic addition in any fantasy league because he will play a crucial role in the Knicks’ success over the next month and a half.

Over the recent “Linsanity” stretch, Jeremy Lin emerged as the team’s starting point guard, and played a lot of minutes.  He was routinely playing 40+ minutes a night.  It was an amazing stretch and his production sky-rocketed, however over time, we will see minutes begin to equilibrize.

So far this season, Baron Davis is averaging 17.2 minutes a game, but played about 25 minutes a game the past three seasons. When healthy, Baron Davis can play 20-25 minutes of effective basketball a night.

As playing time becomes more balanced between Jeremy Lin and Baron Davis, in order to keep Jeremy Lin fresh, I expect Baron Davis to find his teammates more frequently.

Over the last five seasons, Baron Davis averaged 7.59 assists a game and there is a standard deviation, which simply measures variance, of .62 in his yearly assists average. From this data, we can conclude that Baron Davis should end this season averaging between 6.36 and 8.82 assists, modestly above his current average of 5.3 assists a game.

Along with an increase in playing time, Baron Davis should also see an increase in assists, points and rebounds, three valuable categories in all fantasy leagues.   If he’s available in the free-agent pool, pick him up. If he’s taken, pursue a trade.  Baron Davis’ production is sure to increase as the season winds down.

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